Generally speaking, we all agree that testing times do not mean very much. We have no idea of the fuel loads, tire conditions, and many other variables that influence the results. We tend to offer many opinions on what it all means, but we never really know the true pace of the teams until raceday, and sometimes not until later in the year.
Include in those variables the probability that all teams will show up for the first race with new aero parts and their latest hydraulic improvements (Virgin, Lotus), and you just never know what may happen. Brawn showed up for one test last year, kicked everyone's butts, and started the season the same way, only to be outpaced by Red Bull and several others in the last half of the year. Of course we all remember the internet opinion at the time that insisted that Brawn must be "running light, exceeding the rev limits, or some other trickery to get that pace (invariably linked to a enticing a sponsor).
So, what can testing indicate? The total miles run during testing is a true indicator of reliability. It also indicates the team's ability to solve problems. One cars causes a red light due to stoppage on-track, but then it returns 30 minutes later running full pace: problem solved. Another car causes a red light, but it doesn't return until tomorrow afternoon: difficulty solving problem. ferrari reliability? Yes. Their ability to deal with breakdowns? Yes. Both are critical, and total testing miles is a direct indicator of these facts.
The chart indicates approximate total testing miles for all sessions. It does not factor in how many test sessions were attended per team to arrive at an average. RBR missed the first test, so their average is more in line with the mainstream numbers when based on average miles per session. But, as a data gathering exercise, more miles = more data.
If I were dropping a bet today, I would pick Ferrari as the 2010 team champion. They went far more miles, collected far more data, and learned far more about their car than any other team. Their pace in the long runs was just fine, and they managed a pretty quick lap or two here or there. In contrast, the leading contenders (McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes) only did on average 73% of the miles Ferrari. Red Bull only did 58% of Ferrari's mileage.
This indicates Ferrari's relaibility, their ability to solve and repair mechanical problems quickly and methodically, and indicates that the basic outlook for the team in 2010 is good.
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