The Facts on Overtaking - By Paul_Murtagh

After last weekend's Bahrain Grand Prix, there has been a lot of complaints from fans, teams, and drivers about the lack of action and overtaking produced by the new rules. The main argument, especially from followers of the sport, is that the modern day F1 fails to produce the number of overtaking maneouvers that had occured previously, but do the facts back this up?

 

 

You won't be surprised to learn that the amount of successful overtaking moves has decreased gradually since 1983. The graphs shows the amount of successful overtaking moves made on-track after the start of the race (not including changes during pit stops). In 1983 there was an average of 40 successful passing moves per race. The overtaking peaked at a 27-year high a year later, when there was an average of 41.63 successful overtaking moves per race. But since then, the figures have decreased, hitting an all-time low in 2005 with only 10.89 moves per race. Is it a coincidence that the overtaking moves have decreased as aerodynamics have become more and more important in F1? Possibly, but one thing that can be taken from these figures is the impact of refuelling on overtaking. In 1993, there was an average of 24.5 passes per race, and in 1994 this figure dropped to 18.06 passes. Since then it has continued to drop, and only once, in 2003, did this figure raise to 18 passes per race. Only 6 times in 15 years with refuelling did the figure rise, with teams becoming more and more dependent on pit stops to pass their rivals on track. It will be interesting to see just how the removal of mid-race refuelling has an impact on overtaking over the course of 2010

Some will argue though that the introduction of the new modern circuits, or Tilkedromes as they are also known, are responsible for the decrease in overtaking moves. But can this theory be proved?

 
http://i143.photobucket.com/albums/r151/p_murtagh_10/CircuitsByYear.jpg 

For this argument they have a good case. When we look at the graph, we can see that the four of top 5 highest figures come from 'traditional' circuits - with only Shanghai breaking into this bracket by topping the table. Perhaps the biggest surprise in Monaco, which came in 4th from bottom despite being almost impossible to pass on, and producing the only race in 30 years to have no overtaking moves at all during a race in 2003. It is no surprise to see that the three most recent additions to the F1 calendar - Valencia, Singapore and Abu Dhabi - sit bottom of the list. And if we look at circuit changes to traditional venues, then they have indeed produced worse results since the changes - the Circuit De Catalunya produced 7 ovetaking moves with the fast double right handers at the final corner in 2006, but this figure dropped to 5 in 2007, and an all-time low for the circuit of 2 in 2008 following the introduction of a chicane to improve overtaking chances out of the final corner.

So do these facts carry any weight, or are they irrelevant with today's rules and regulations?

Thanks to Brogan at http://www.cliptheapex.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=822 for the stats for this blog.

Comments

[sportsman]

They are extremely interesting.At first glance they do appear to show a significant drop in overtaking.
But looking further into the stats from the source quoted,a further factor appears.
During some of the years, the were the added variations of having turbo and non turbo cars running in the same race.
What is very clear however, that during these years, there was still ample room within the regulations, to allow innovate modifications.
That is part of the current problem in F1.
The regulations are so restrictive, that essentially all of the cars are clones of each other, and the only area allowing any advantage is in aerodynamics.

[Brogan]

I have refined my data since you wrote this so some of your figures are now incorrect.
The data is constantly under review so it would be worth your while checking back frequently.

Feel free to link directly to my chart images, hotlinking is not disabled.

I would also appreciate it if you could link directly to the post: http://www.cliptheapex.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=822

Thanks.

Brogan
www.cliptheapex.com

[flood1]

Hi Brogan, I will take care of that link and we will do as you suggest. I will change the link immediately.

Appreciate your work, it is especially useful with all the talk about overtaking that is presently in the news.

Flood

[Brogan]

Thanks for the update Flood, appreciate it.

Glad to help with the data.
Always good to see someone else interested in F1 making use of it.

Interesting blog, I've bookmarked it.

Brogan.